Saturday, 1 April 2017

FEDAL XXXVII


The Miami Masters 1000 which is the final spring hardcourt event has now reached its final stage which will be a repeat of the epic 2005 Miami Final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

In the semi-finals Rafael Nadal beat Fabio Fognini in straight sets. The second set was much closer with Nadal winning the match 6-1 7-5. The second semi-final saw Roger Federer take on Nick Kyrgios and the match was a classic which needed 3 tie break sets to determine a winner.

The first set saw both men have set points, before Federer finally capitalised on one of them and took the tie-break 11-9 and close out the set. The second set saw Federer squander 2 match points and 5-6 and 7-8, both on his own serve and Kyrgios in his go for broke style fired an ace to win the  set by clinching tie break 9-11. The third set tie break saw Nick Kyrgios leading 3-1 and he ended up losing the breaker 5-7. The match which could be called match of the tournament and a contender for match of the year lasted 3 hours and 11 minutes and was a spectacle for everyone gathered to watch the match under the lights of Key Biscane’s Crandon Tennis Park, Stadium Court. What ruined the game was Nick Kyrgios smashing his racquet when walking to the net to shake Federer’s hand.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal had not played each other in the entire 2016 season. Now, fans will get to see them compete against each other for the third time this year and we are only in April.
This will be the 37th meeting between the two with Nadal leading 23-13.

Rafael Nadal has never won the title at Miami and this is his 5th appearance in the final at Crandon Tennis Park. Roger Federer is a two time winner at Miami but the last of his titles and appearance in a final at Miami came as 24 year old in 2006.

Rafael Nadal, through luck of the draw and other results, hasn’t played a top 15 player in the entire tournament and has breezed through to the final with just 1 hiccup (against Philipp Kolschreiber in the 2nd round where he lost the 1st set 6-0) In the second round he beat Dudi Sela in the 3rd round he triumphed against Nicolas Mahut, in the fourth round he overcame the challenge of Top Ranked American Jack Sock.

Federer has had to face #ATPNextGen player Francis Tiafoe in the 2nd round, Juan Martin Del Potro in the 3rd round Roberto Bautista-Agut in the round of 16 Tomas Berdych in the quarters.

 He has clearly had the trickier path to the final but as he said prior to the Indian Wells tournament where he was drawn in the quarter of death, that he came to the ATP Wold Tour Masters 1000 tournament to face the best. He certainly has gotten his wish.

What can we expect from the final?

The duo have played twice this season and Federer has come up victorious on both occasions (Australian Open Final and Indian Wells 4th round). Nadal and his camp won’t be just sitting and watching it. They are sure to have come up with a game plan to counter Roger’s first strike tennis. His serve and volley approach has been countered by Del Potro and Tomas Berdych who both played amazing passing shots. The courts at Miami combined with the conditions make the balls drift slightly through the air and bounce after contact with the surface rather than just skid through like they do at Indian Wells. A small mis volley from Federer and he will have to be at his defensive best at the net for Nadal is sure to chase down anything he possibly can. Toni Nadal and Carlos Moya will have observed that Federer is not moving as well as he did at Indian Wells and Melbourne and will realise that he is feeling the effects of deep runs into tournaments. Another thing they will focus on is Federer’s poor break point conversion rate (below 40% in each of his matches) this tournament.

The slowness of the Miami courts is a reason why Federer usually skips the tournament or hasn’t been past the semis whenever he has appeared here since 2006. However he has now identified the clay court season as the most taxing and wants to play as many grass and hard court tournaments as possible and hence Miami is a must visit for him.

The time on court and amount of tie breaks played and Federer’s age combined deep runs in tournaments (he won at Indian Wells) compared with Nadal’s easy route to the summit clash (it was not his fault if Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic who were in his half of the draw, fell early) and his early exit in Indian Wells make Nadal the fresher of the two heading into the final.

The slower conditions also tip the scales ever so slightly in Nadal’s favour. Also Nadal at age 30 is 5 years younger than Federer and based on the above, should be in prime position to capture his first title at Miami and avenge that painful defeat he suffered 12 years ago, in 5 sets (that time the finals at Masters 1000 events were also best of 5 sets) after leading 2 sets to love and having match points in the third, as an 18 year old to a 23 year old Federer.

A win for Federer here will allow him to amass 400 more points and give him the freedom to sit out of the majority of the clay court season without the fear of dropping out of the top 8. A win for Nadal, will give him momentum as he will snap a three match losing streak to Federer (in 36 previous meetings he hasn’t ever lost three times in a row to Federer) and head off on a high to his personal sandbox (the European clay courts)

It’s like the stars have aligned to help Nadal get his 2017 head to head against Federer back on track and add one of the few titles he doesn’t have, to his shelf back in Manacor, Mallorca, Spain.

Prediction: Nadal in three.

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